Saturday, December 4, 2010

Brazilian oil and the 1967 Palestinian border

Well if you live in the world and occasionally read the news you might have heard that yesterday (Dec 3) Lula, the Brazilian president, declared that Brazil recognizes the Palestinian state respecting the 1967 borders. Specifically [translated]:
“The recognition of the Palestinian state is part of the Brazilian conviction that a negotiation process resulting in two States that live in peace and security is the best path to peace in the Middle East (…) Brazil will always be ready to assist as necessary.”
Furthermore, the Brazilian government stressed that the announcement will not damage its relations with Israel, which have never been so strong.

You probably think I’m going to comment on the wisdom of this decision and saturate this post with impassioned personal opinions and convictions… wrong. This issue has nothing to do with ideologies, peace, or even the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Nothing at all. It has everything to do with oil, Brazilian oil.

A few years back Brazil discovered billions of barrels of offshore oil, it is called the Pre-salt layer.  Petrobras, the Brazilian oil company was state owned until a few administrations ago when a large portion was privatized. Now the Pre-Salt oil belongs to Brazil and a few international oil companies like Shell, BP etc, but still Brazil stands to change its fortune with the discovery.  Recently another phenomenal reserve was found, in even deeper waters, and these reserves had not been earmarked or negotiated to any other country or company, they belong entirely to Brazil. Jackpot. So how is Palestine’s 1967 borders and deep water Brazilian oil related? Simple: Iran.

How you may ask.  Consider several factors:
  • Lula’s 8 year administration has sought to move the Brazilian economy forward and away from the historically tight grasp of the United States. 
  • Brazil does not have the technology to explore deep water oil, and it would take years to develop such technologies.
  • The US is not willing to provide the technology unless it is once again invited to sit at feast.
Brazil’s problem then is how to acquire this technology without once again kowtowing to the US?

Brazil had to find a partner for the technology it needs, a partner that is not simply a mouthpiece for the US.  Countries like United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, occupied Iraq, etc, could not be relied upon for a partnership that excluded the US.  A moment of thought and you will see that the choices are very few.  Recently Brazil has been grooming its relationship with Iran.  Sakineh Mohammadi Ashtiani, the Iranian woman sentenced to be stoned to death for adultery was publicly offered asylum by the Brazilian government.  That is, until Iran thanked Lula for his concern and told him to butt out.  There have been other signs of a relationship between the countries, a relationship groomed to acquire Iranian technologies to explore the Pre Salt layer.  The latest indication is the recognition of the Palestinian state.

Today Mahmoud Abbas threatened to dissolve the Palestinian Authority. 

“(…)and lobby the United Nations to recognize Palestinian statehood, bypassing negotiations entirely. "I cannot accept to remain the president of an authority that doesn't exist."

Why did he Abbas make such a statement? did you guess ‘oil’? Here is how the dots connect:  If Brazil now recognizes the Palestinian state in the UN, it will have more power to pass. Brazil recognized the Palestinian state because it was pressured to do so by Iran, so that Iran will provide Brazil with the technology to explore the pre-salt layer which contains… yes OIL.

Oil baby.  It’s all about the oil. It has nothing to do with peace in the region, political and religious ideologies, history or any such thing. Only oil. But when you watch the interviews and the news they will all tell you that it’s in pursuit of peace in the region and the well being of the world’s population, saving the environment, stopping global warming, leaving a better legacy for our children and saving the whales. So maybe it actually is all about the bullshit…  I’m off to put some cow manure in my tank and see how far I can drive.  You can draw your own conclusions!

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